As you all know, last night the Iowa Caucuses officially kicked off the 2008 election season with Barack Obama and Mike Huckabee coming out the big winners. Equally important Iowa has also again succeeded in culling the field with several candidates facing the reality that they haven’t a chance of winning the nomination – should make for a more interesting debate this weekend.
On the Democratic side Hillary’s third place finish clearly puts her on the defensive and destroys any aura of ‘inevitability’ she had remaining. However, with the sheer amount of money she has collected and favors she’s undoubtedly called in from her years in Washington this is going to be a competitive race for quite some time. Its also expected to get nasty as Soren Dayton explains.
As for the Republicans, Huckabee’s victory ensures a continued open field moving into New Hampshire where he is not expected to draw much support. The narrative developing up north is one of a McCain resurgence – which as a strong supporter from 2000 I’m not disappointed about. If Giuliani’s late start strategy falters in Florida later this month I much prefer a McCain candidacy to the alternatives.
In the short term though the focus is now on Hillary and Romney to see if they can salvage their respective campaigns with a strong showing in New Hampshire. They each raised expectations in Iowa by adopting a strategy focused on locking up the nomination in the early states. Romney’s defeat in particular is exacerbated by the fact that he invested millions into his Iowa operation outspending the competition by a huge margin.
Its going to be a long slog to February 5th.
Countdown to New Hampshire: 4 days
Countdown to Michigan: 11 days
Countdown to Nevada and SC GOP primary: 15 days
Countdown to SC Dem primary: 22 days
Countdown to Florida: 25 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 32 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 305 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 382 days
(First Read – NBC)
